SEVERAL CLIENTS have been asking about how long until things start to get back to “normal”. And what changes investors need to watch for, after we emerged from lockdown.
During times of economic uncertainty, you should focus on the underlying fundamentals driving demand and investment. And these still remain strong.
In my view, you should see a stronger than expected recovery – provided various states don’t unnecessarily delay the steps needed to restart the economy. [Read more…]
THERE WAS A FAVOURABLE response to the so-called Phase 1 breakthrough in the Trade Talks, between the US and China. And there’s been further positive developments this week.
However, it is actually worth reviewing where things stood before these recent events.
Despite political tensions, there has been little adverse impact on Australia’s trade with China. And the rapid increase in China’s share of our exports has been principally driven by higher iron ore prices. [Read more…]
ACCORDING TO JP MORGAN, the expected trade war should only shave about 0.07% off Australia’s GDP over the next couple of years. [Read more…]
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A NUMBER of journalists and economic pundits seem to have been focussing solely upon the latest GDP figures.
However, the recent NAB monthly business survey appears to contradict concerns about the shaky household consumption sector – where the main concerns seem to relate to past issues.
Mainly things like … the end of the mining boom, resulting in a collapse of wage growth. [Read more…]
WHILE THE WORLD may be stunned by Donald Trump’s win, you’ll most likely find things will not be nearly as bad as everyone thinks.
And that’s reflected in the huge rebound in the stock market — once investors began studying his policies in more depth.
In many respects, the media is responsible for the outcome — because so much airplay was given to his outlandish rhetoric. [Read more…]
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THE ANSWER is both Yes and No … depending upon which country you live in.
Last weekend’s Financial Review reported an analysis by Oxford Economics, which predicted the likely effect upon GDP during 2015-16 … of oil being at $US40 Vs. $US84 per barrel.
And a quick summary of that is included over on the right. [Read more…]
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OFFICE VACANCY RATES have lept towards 15% in Brisbane, Darwin, Canberra, Adelaide and Perth. And this takes the national average to 12.4%, as an overall vacancy level.
However, businesses are now leasing space once again in both Sydney and Melbourne — where their vacancy rates are currently hovering around 10%, according to Jones Lang LaSalle. [Read more…]
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In simple terms, the answer is … both indirectly and indirectly.
General consensus is that our dollar should ideally be trading at around US85 cents. And that would provide a balance between encouraging non-resource export businesses, while not adding unwanted inflationary pressure.
The RBA could achieve this simply by lowering the official interest rate. However, that would then fuel even more local borrowing — especially within the residential property market. [Read more…]
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HAVE YOU NOTICED how people are generally now acting in a far more positive manner. And that’s simply because they are starting to feel “wealthy” again. [Read more…]
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FURTHER EVIDENCE of an underlying strength in the Commercial property market is now provided by the latest IPD/Property Council index.
During 2013, you saw investors (both local and overseas) stride out from the shadows of the Global Financial Crisis. And as this graph confirms, every sector has displayed a healthy improvement in selling yields. [Read more…]
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COMMERCIAL PROPERTY stands to benefit from the recent improved business trading figures — which have soared to a 2-year high. And these now fall into line with the NAB Survey’s confidence levels.
As such, many forecasters believe these latest figures (together with the growth in house prices over the past 12 months) now reflect the underlying strength of Australia’s post-mining economy.
Therefore, further interest rate reductions expected by the RBA are unlikely to occur any time soon — if at all. [Read more…]
